Chaotic weather forecasters!
When and if the bicycles are ever mended (brakes, tyres, etc.) and on the roof of the car, we're off to Arran. It's Scotland, so it always sounds like a good idea to check out the probable weather patterns.
I start by putting "Brodick" in as my "hometown" here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml. For today, I get a white cloud with a little sun. For tomorrow, a black cloud, a sun and some rain. That's not terribly detailed, so to double check, I try the following page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/sscotland/. Now, Arran - where Brodick is - is the little island to the left of Ayr on the map. You can play the weather sequence by clicking the arrow button at the bottom of the map. Only this time, the only rain that gets anywhere near Arran is for today, not tomorrow!
Of course, we all know weather patterns are chaotic, especially in places where the prevailing wind blows the air from over the sea directly to meet the mountains. And when the forecasters get it wrong, we curse them and get over it. But even if the weather is chaotic, and it's easy to imagine how two different simulations would have got different answers for the same spot, that's not really an excuse. If neither of the forecasts is expected to be more accurate, they might as well have just put a "?" symbol ...
I start by putting "Brodick" in as my "hometown" here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml. For today, I get a white cloud with a little sun. For tomorrow, a black cloud, a sun and some rain. That's not terribly detailed, so to double check, I try the following page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/sscotland/. Now, Arran - where Brodick is - is the little island to the left of Ayr on the map. You can play the weather sequence by clicking the arrow button at the bottom of the map. Only this time, the only rain that gets anywhere near Arran is for today, not tomorrow!
Of course, we all know weather patterns are chaotic, especially in places where the prevailing wind blows the air from over the sea directly to meet the mountains. And when the forecasters get it wrong, we curse them and get over it. But even if the weather is chaotic, and it's easy to imagine how two different simulations would have got different answers for the same spot, that's not really an excuse. If neither of the forecasts is expected to be more accurate, they might as well have just put a "?" symbol ...
